跳至主要内容

Proportionate Target Population Estimates Used by National Immunization Programmes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Comparison with Values from an External Source

Read full paper at:
http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=49008#.VJeRjcCAM4

Background: In order to effectively plan the delivery of immunization services, manage stock and supply levels and target interventions, national immunization programmes (NIP) must have an estimate of the target population they serve. To overcome challenges with target population estimation, some NIPs apply “rule-of-thumb” conversion factors to total population estimates. We compare these proportionate target population values with those from an external source. Methods: Using data reported by national immunization programmes in sub-Saharan Africa, we computed the proportionate target population as the number of births, surviving infants and children under 5 years of age, respectively, as a proportion of the total population size. We compared these values with those estimates computed from United Nations Population Division (UNPD) data. We then recomputed NIP target population sizes using the proportionate target population values from the UNPD applied to the total population size reported by NIP. Results: Data were available from 47 sub-Saharan Africa countries. Births as a proportion of the total population were greater within reports from NIP (median, 0.0400; IQR: 0.350 - 0.0437) compared to values from UNPD estimates (median, 0.0364; IQR: 0.0332 - 0.0406). Similar patterns were observed for surviving infants (median: NIP, 0.0360; UNPD, 0.0337) and children under 5 years of age (median: NIP, 0.1735; UNPD, 0.1594). The percent difference in proportionate target population ratios between reports from NIPs and the UNPD was >10% in 23 countries for births, in 18 countries for surviving infants, in 15 countries for children under 5 years of age. After re-computing target populations using UNPD proportionate target population values applied to NIP reported total population, recomputed administrative coverage levels for the third dose of DTP containing vaccine were higher in 32 of the 47 countries compared to reported administrative coverage levels. Conclusion: Because childhood immunization-related target populations are among the more difficult ones to accurately estimate and project, immunization programmes in sub-Saharan Africa are encouraged to include a critical assessment of the target population values, in conjunction with their national statistics system, as part of the on-going programme monitoring process.
Cite this paper
Brown, D. , Burton, A. , Dobo, M. and Mihigo, R. (2014) Proportionate Target Population Estimates Used by National Immunization Programmes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Comparison with Values from an External Source. World Journal of Vaccines, 4, 147-156. doi: 10.4236/wjv.2014.43017. 
 

[1] (2010) United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2010 World Population and Housing Census Programme: Census Dates for All Countries.
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/censusdates.htm
[2] United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013) World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. UNDESA, New York.
[3] Brown, D.W., Feeney, G. and Burton, A.H. (2012) Raising Awareness among Immunization Programme Managers to the Potential Bias Resulting from the Application of Fixed Factors to Obtain Target Population Size Estimates. The Open Public Health Journal, 5, 15-18.
http://www.benthamscience.com/open/tophj/articles/V005/15TOPHJ.pdf
[4] (2012) United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) Generation 2025 and Beyond. The Critical Importance of Understanding Demographic Trends for Children of the 21st Century. UNICEF, New York.              eww141222lx
http://www.childinfo.org/files/Generation_2025_and_beyond_Nov2012.pdf
标签：

评论

发表评论

此博客中的热门博文

Does Immigration Promote the Investment of the Monopolistic Firm?

In the present paper, we examine the effect of increasing uncertainty of immigrants’ growth on the optimal timing of investment of a firm that has a monopolistic power over the labor market. It is revealed that when the uncertainty of immigrants’ growth is more than a threshold level, increasing uncertainty of immigrants’ growth accelerates the optimal timing of firms’ investment and enhances the economic growth, even if the uncertainty of immigrants’ growth is formulated by the geometric Brownian motion, which is in sharp contrast to the standard result that an increase in the uncertainty postpones the optimal timing. With an increase in the immigrants over the past ten years, workforces in the host countries have been growing significantly to the extent that the immigrants represent 70% of the increase in the workforce in Europe, and 47% in the United States as OECD indicates. In the present paper, we attempted to investigate the effect of increased uncertainty caused by the growi...
发表评论
阅读全文

Education Policy Implementation: A Mechanism for Enhancing Primary Education Development in Zanzibar

Education is one of the fundamental rights of individuals; therefore, the government of a country needs to develop and strengthen educational policy and quality as well as to ensure that everyone has equal access to basic education. The improvement of access and quality of education in the world is becoming as an essential factor in development, whereas the basic education (primary school), is acknowledged as a foundation of the higher educational development for every country. To fulfill this goal, governments introduce several policies and procedures; however, it requires some reforms and participation from the politician, policymakers, and other stakeholders to re-examine educational policy so that it can lead to multiplication and betterment of the reforms. Educational reforms actually focus on accountability. A positive educational development and reform is very challenging and needs more effort and strategy on how to use and utilize the resources effectively as such it can achie...
发表评论
阅读全文